Science H. Logic!

Over the coming posts, I will have plenty to talk about with respect to AP rankings. But for now, I want to get the ball rolling by tossing some skepticism into the weekly rankings we are so excited to see every Sunday. I am of the opinion that your ranking should be a logical reflection of your performance ON the field, THIS season, and NOTHING else. This approach provides the correct answer to the great question, ‘Which team is the best?’ To expand upon what I mean, let’s look at some interesting and fun stats about this week’s AP Poll.

Kansas is currently 4-0 and snuggly sitting in the #16 slot. The only BCS team they have beaten this season is Duke. Where as Wisconsin is unranked 5-0 with two victories over BCS teams; South Florida is #23 5-0 with two victories over BCS teams; and Auburn is #17 with a 5-0 record with 3 victories over BCS teams. A victory over Duke counts when the game is 5 on 5 and your opposing coach has the court named after him. Why is Kansas ranked 16th and everyone else below them? Kansas started with a preseason ranking of #25 and by not losing, has worked their way up as those above them tumbled down. But for reasons to be discussed in another post, AP voters are reluctant to put more deserving teams ahead of their preseason pick. Note: South Florida, Wisconsin and Auburn did not start the preseason ranked.

For the record. Congrats on 4-0 Kansas, you deserve recognition of that; however those 3 teams deserve more, at least for now. I will always hold a special place in my heart for teams that can win every game. Just think how many more national championship trophies So Cal might have played for if did not have Buckeye victory fever or play against Stanford’s 3rd string quarterback.

Now let’s take a gander at the other extreme, which I call a working example of our ranking system. Notre Dame has a modest 4-1 record but I think we can massage a more appropriate description of their performance thus far into the season. Notre Dame’s 4 victories have come against teams with an aggregate record of 6-13, with an average margin of victory of 5.6 points against the 3 BCS opponents they have beaten thus far. The Fighting Irish are not ranked. Let’s compare Notre Dame to another 4-1 team for comparison and evaluation. I arbitrarily choose, Georgia Tech, which should make my partner in crime happy. Buzz and his GT buddies’ 4 victories have come against teams with an aggregate record of 10-10, with an average margin of victory of 10.3 points against the 3 BCS opponents they have beaten thus far. Let’s also toss in the fact that GT’s loss came at Miami against a 4-1 Hurricanes squad that has beaten 3 ranked opponents while ND lost at a 4-1 Michigan team that has beaten, well, ND. GT is ranked #23. We can now easily argue that Tech is better than Notre Dame. And that my friends is a working example of how the AP rankings should work.

Texas is #2 and has beaten only a single BCS opponent. #3 Alabama has beat 3 BCS opponents including #7 VT. LSU is #4 having beat 4! BCS opponents. Texas is ranked #2 because voters feel they are #2 (also their preseason ranking) not because they have performed at the level worthy of #2 ranking. Is Texas a good team? Hell yes. Are the going to have a good season? Most certainly. But to date, they have not played to their ranking. Teams below them at this point in the season have done more to deserve a higher ranking. When Texas finally plays competition where we can properly evaluate them, they can then compete for that coveted #2 spot. Rankings should be earned, not given.

Why are my panties in a knot on this subject? Wins and losses are not treated equally in the rankings. Win a big game and you move up 2, maybe 3, spots if you sacrifice a goat while drinking Cambodian breast milk at sunrise on the winter solstice. Lose a close game against an evenly matched opponent and your ranking will collapse faster than our housing market. For example, #5 Alabama beat #7 VT, Alabama became #3. #16 Oregon lost to #14 Boise State and Oregon plummeted out of the rankings. Granted, I just gave you results from week 1 of the season which does have a decent bit on moving and shaking but those results also contain my point. It has taken Oregon 4 weeks and 4 solid victories to get back to where they were after the loss during the most volatile portion of the season’s rankings. If Wisconsin or South Florida were to lose this weekend, the chances of them ever climbing up the rankings as a 1 loss team is FAR slimmer than a 1 loss Kansas team simply because Kansas has a higher start (Auburn might be OK).

Rank teams based on THEIR performance ON the field THIS season. ~ Dan